Phillies are Winning Often Because They’re Winning Early (2024)

For the first seven weeks of the Phillies season, the prevailing explanation for their incredible start has been their starting pitching.

It’s true, the starting pitching has been sensational, for the most part. It’s a big reason why the Phillies, at 32-14, have the best record in Major League Baseball. This was evidenced again on Friday in a 4-2 win over the Washington Nationals, a game in which Zack Wheeler threw 7 1/3 innings and allowing just the two runs on three hits, which was needed as the Phillies couldn’t muster a hit after the third inning and Washington pitchers retired the final 16 Phillies batters in a row.

But I’m here to tell you that for all the success of the starters, there have been other contributions that have been equally key.

The offense has been really good when you look at it from a 1,000-foot view. Consider their rankings in the majors in the following categories:

• Runs per game – 5.24 (1st)
• Hits – 400 (4th)
• Home Runs – 51 (tied for 7th)
• Triples – 10 (tied for 3rd)
• RBIs – 229 (2nd)
• Stolen Bases – 54 (4th)
• Walks – 176 (3rd)
• Batting Average – .257 (4th)
• On Base Percentage – .335 (4th)
• Slugging Percentage – .411 (6th)
• OPS – .746 (5th)

All upper echelon numbers – and those are just the counting stats. If you look at metrics or situational hitting, you’ll find even impressive data on the Phillies.

For example, consider Baseball-Reference’s Win Probability Added (WPA) – which quantifies the percent change in a team’s chances of winning from one event to the next by measuring the importance of a given plate appearance in the context of the game. For instance: a homer in a one-run game is worth more than a homer in a blowout. Only eight teams’ offenses have a positive WPA. Only four of them have a WPA of at least 1.0 and only one team has a WPA above 2.0.

That’s the Phillies, at 2.4.

Their team batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is .309. That’s fifth-best in baseball. They have scored 188 runs when they have runners in scoring position, which is the best in baseball.

There we go, Marshy!! pic.twitter.com/cwvXjvRRaB

See Also

Clemens home run sets up Harper extra-inning heroics in Phillies come-from-behind 4-3 win over NationalsWhat’s Happening This Week: Phillies vs. Rangers, May 21-23Mets reach deep for 'great team win' over Phils in 11 inningsPhilly Today: What the Hell Is Going on With This New Mascot?

— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) May 17, 2024

One would think that with all that offensive positivity, more people would be talking about the Phillies’ offense, right?

Well, they aren’t.

Kyle Schwarber has been up and down. Bryce Harper has been good, not great. Nick Castellanos can’t seem to get any sort of flow going. Brandon Marsh has cooled off considerably. Trea Turner was on fire, but he got hurt and has missed time.

And then there are the individual games themselves – like the time they struck out 18 times against the Angels and 17 times against the Giants and Friday when the bats went completely silent after the third inning against the Nationals – and yet, they still won all three games, which must mean it’s all because of the pitching, right?

Maybe. Each case is different. But there is also this to note –

The Phillies have outscored their opponents 71-28 in the first two innings of games.

• 1st Inning – 43-13
• 2nd Inning – 28-15

They have a .282 batting average in the first two innings of games, which is best in the sport. Their OPS in the first two innings is .828, second only to the Dodgers. They have walked 42 times in the first two innings. They have 16 stolen bases – tied for second most in the sport behind only the running Reds of Cincinnati.

The Phillies are putting a lot of stress on opposing starters, working high pitch counts, and getting into bullpens quicker.

“We put over 70 pitches on the starter after the third inning,” Thomson said. “We’re seeing pitches. We’re making a guy work. You get over 15 pitches in an inning and the stuff needs to come down, and when we do that, we tend to barrel up some balls.”

Play of the day: Marsh spitting his gum into the cup Stott was holding 🤣🤣🤣 pic.twitter.com/BIJQLS0quD

— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) May 18, 2024

You know who the best hitter in baseball is in the first two innings of games?

Alec Bohm.

Check out these numbers:

.513/.568/.897; 1.466 OPS; 7 2B, 2 HR, 16 RBI

It’s pretty staggering stuff. Only Boston’s Tyler O’Neill has a higher OPS in the first two innings, and that’s only because of the home run differential between he and Bohm.

“He’s as pure a hitter as it gets,” Marsh said. “He can get a single, double, triple, homer, kind of whatever he feels like. Credit to him and his work because it’s showing out on the field.”

But it’s not just Bohm.

Since filling in for Turner, Edmundo Sosa is hitting .438 in 16 plate appearances in the first two innings. Harper is hitting .303. Schwarber is at .288 with five home runs. Bryson Stott is hitting .286.

On Friday it was Bohm’s two-out RBI double that scored the Phillies first run in the first inning.

That’s just classic Alec Bohm pic.twitter.com/n0s6MFWbMz

— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) May 17, 2024

After Washington tied it, the Phillies went ahead for good in the second inning by Marsh working a walk, Sosa getting a hit, and then a couple of ground outs and a wild pitch.

The Phillies have an OPS 102 points higher (.789) against opposing starters than opposing relievers, meaning the offense is coming early, and often.

It’s why they haven’t lost back-to-back games since April 24th. In fact, that was also the last time they lost a game where they didn’t have the tying, go-ahead, or winning run come to the plate in the ninth inning or later in a loss.

It’s all because of the timely offense to start games, coupled with the strong pitching, of course.

They are simply taking it to opposing starters and then letting their pitchers take it from there. And considering how good the pitching has been… well… that’s the easy formula to ending up with the best record in the game.