The Kathmandu Post - 04 Jun, 2024 (2024)

DHOLERA/NEW DELHI,
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi plans a raft of business-friendly measures if he wins a third term this week, including pushing through regulations making it easier to hire and fire workers, according to two government officials familiar with the matter.
As part of an election pledge to transform India into a global manufacturing hub, Modi wants to offer subsidies for domestic production modelled on recent packages for semiconductor firms and electric vehicle makers, said the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorised to talk to media.
The premier also plans to reduce import taxes on key inputs for locally-made goods, which have pushed up India’s manufacturing costs, the officials said.
Modi’s office and the labour and finance ministries did not respond to Reuters’ questions.
Exit polls project that the right-wing coalition led by Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will win a big majority when election results are announced on June 4.
Modi’s reelection campaign was partly built on the promise of continued economic development. He’s pitching India as an alternative for global firms diversifying their supply chains from China.
India is the world’s fastest-growing major economy. But that includes both a booming tech sector and a struggling older economy that doesn’t provide enough jobs for everyone else, said Josh Felman, the former head of the International Monetary Fund’s office in India.
“What can be done now to provide employment - good jobs for these people - is manufacturing,” Felman said.
India successfully lured suppliers for major U.S. corporations like Apple Inc and Alphabet Inc’s Google. But less than 3% of global manufacturing takes place in the world’s most populous country, compared to 24% for China, World Bank data shows.
The government plans to increase India’s share of global manufacturing to 5% by 2030 and 10% by 2047, according to an internal document seen by Reuters. It did not provide specifics.
Reuters spoke to 15 people - including bureaucrats, representatives of major investors, economists and trade unionists - who identified three significant obstacles holding India back from manufacturing hub status: restrictive labour laws, challenges acquiring land, and a rigidly inefficient tariff regime.

India’s pearl river delta?
When Modi was chief minister of his home state of Gujarat between 2001 and 2014, he dreamt up an investment zone in the Dholera region. Legislation creating the Dholera Special Investment Region (DSIR) was passed in 2009 and local authorities began acquiring land for it in 2013.
The plan, Modi said during a 2011 visit to a Chinese port, was to develop DSIR along the “Shanghai model”.
Starting in the 1980s, China set up special economic zones along its southeastern coast that are widely credited for it becoming the world’s factory floor.
Land reform was a precursor for China’s manufacturing rise. Starting in the 1970s, Beijing separated ownership from usage rights, making it easier for investors to acquire industrial land, said Henry Gao, a Chinese trade expert at Singapore Management University (SMU).
Beijing’s industrial zoning policies also made it easier for industries to set up in areas with ready access to materials and facilities, he said.
As prime minister, Modi has continued to stress the importance of industrial zones for India. In March, he described facilities under construction in DSIR as central to the creation of an Indian semi-conductor manufacturing hub.
Tata Group announced plans in January to build India’s first semi-conductor fabrication plant there. During a visit in March, Reuters also saw construction activity for an upcoming cargo airport and promotional billboards set up by real-estate developers.
There were paved roads and a waterfront but little sign of bustling business.
DSIR hopes to attract more manufacturing companies by providing leases of up to 99 years on government-owned land, said Rahul Gupta, head of the Gujarat Industrial Development Corporation.
Local officials have said that it took more than a decade to acquire land and award infrastructure contracts, but Gupta predicted there would be much more activity in about two to three years.
Outside such zones, industrial groups still have to undergo a “very difficult process” to acquire the large plots of land they need because title deeds are often unclear and holdings are fractured, said Richard Rossow of the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies think-tank.
In May, Foxconn - whose local investment was trumpeted as a major success by Modi - was met with protests by farmers in Karnataka state unhappy with the compensation they received from local authorities for giving up their land to the manufacturer, Indian media reported.
The Taiwanese company didn’t return a request for comment.

Labour struggles
In much of India, firms with more than 100 employees need authorisation from state governments to hire and fire.
This prevents companies from adjusting their operations to meet demand, said Atul Gupta, partner at Bengalore law firm Trilegal.
The BJP-controlled parliament has passed legislation to raise the threshold before official approval to 300, but state authorities that must consent to the changes have stalled the move.
Modi hopes that a strong win on June 4th will give him the momentum and political capital to push through their opposition, the two government officials said.
“No government wants to come across as giving permission to a company to let go of their employees (but)...this is just used to drag out the closure or the terminations endlessly,” said Gupta, who advocates labour reforms.
General Motors, for instance, decided to shut plants in Gujarat and neighboring Maharastra in 2017, citing low sales. But unions opposed the closures and GM only received judicial approval to exit India completely in January. The U.S. carmaker declined to comment.
To avoid such difficulties, companies end up using contract workers for extended periods, said labour lawyer Amrish Patel.
HSBC economists said that sweeping changes to labour regulations as well as land reforms are needed to sustain high growth.
In a note to investors last month, HSBC economist Pranjul Bhandari wrote that such reforms could allow India to grow at 7.5-8% over the next decade, creating a wealth of jobs.
But lawyer and union leader Sanjay Singhvi said nearly 60% of the workers who benefit from current labour laws would lose protections if the BJP’s codes are implemented.
Praveen Chakravarty, a senior economics policy official with the main opposition Congress, told Reuters that labour law decisions should be left to the states. His party’s manifesto calls for a review of the labour codes passed by parliament.

Tariff land
Manufacturing costs in India are also elevated because of tariffs on imports, including components for high-end manufacturing.
To encourage smartphone production, Delhi cut import duties on components to 10%. But competitor Vietnam already levies a rate of between 0% and 5% on equivalent inputs, according to the India Cellular and Electronics Association.
The average import tariff imposed by India on World Trade Organisation (WTO) members was 18.1%, compared to 7.5% for China, according to WTO data for 2022, the most recent year for which figures are available.
Customs processes are also significantly quicker and less burdensome in China, said Gao.
Imports can clear customs in China in about 20 hours, said the SMU professor. It takes between 44 and 85 hours in India, according to a 2023 government study.
Beijing has focused its efforts on being a key node in the supply chain rather than attempting to own the entire chain, leading to greater efficiencies.
For instance, products exported by China often include inputs from other Northeast Asian countries, said Christian de Guzman of Moody’s Ratings.
But Delhi “wants to have the entire thing come onshore,” Guzman said.

The debate on the proposed budget for Fiscal Year 2024-25, beginning July 16, has begun in the federal Parliament. The debate, though, is a mere ritual. Neither is the debate likely to change the allocation of a single rupee nor is any resource available to upscale or add projects. However, the fiscal bill has somehow rightly diagnosed the maladies that hold back the growth of the Nepali economy. Economic activities could not expand due to a fall in consumer demand, low credit expansion, low capacity of the manufacturing sector and a decline in goods imports. Yet, the growth rate in the current fiscal year is expected to be 3.9 percent at producers’ prices as against only 3.1 percent estimated by the International Monetary Fund.
Also, Finance Minister Barshaman Pun hoped to take the capital expenditure to Rs215.3 billion (71.3 percent of the capital allocation) and collect Rs1,253.5 billion (88.1 percent of the target) in around six weeks of the current fiscal year that remain. Even these substantially downsized targets are unlikely to be met. By June 2, the government had spent only Rs127.85 billion (42.32 percent of the allocation) towards capital expenditure and collected a revenue of Rs873.66 billion (61.42 percent of the target).
Despite acknowledging these growth constraints, the proposed fiscal policy fails to prescribe credible means to restore the confidence of consumers and investors. It is only by restoring the confidence of consumers, investors, and the market that the economy can be reinvigorated. Ironically, the finance minister instead expects appreciation for being ‘unambitious’ and ‘pragmatic’ while setting a subdued revenue target of Rs1,260 billion and allocating a capital budget of Rs352.3 billion.

Bulging deficit
The FY 2024-25 budget is a hugely deficit budget by Rs547.8 billion out of the total proposed outlay of Rs1,860.3 billion. The deficit alone is 29.44 percent of the allocation and 9.6 percent of the revised gross domestic product (GDP) value of Rs5,705 billion (USD 42.5 billion). In the coming fiscal year, Rs330 billion will be raised from domestic borrowings and Rs217.7 billion from external borrowings. Even if the revenue of Rs1,260 billion projected by the budget were to be collected, the government cannot escape the current expenditure of Rs1,140.6 billion and default on debt service obligation of Rs357.3 billion.
This means that the sum of revenue and domestic debt will only be enough to cover the expenditures under these two headings, thus leaving an extremely thin scope for generating resources for the Rs352.3 billion allocated for capital expenditures. On the one hand, capital allocation is barely 19 percent of the total allocation, the lowest ratio in Nepal’s budget history. On the other, Nepal faces a chronic problem of underspending the earmarked capital budget. An added risk is that due to declining consumption and imports, the revenue target seems unattainable.
Raising loans from external lenders has always been challenging. For example, in the current fiscal year, only half of the expected Rs213 billion would be available for the government to mobilise. If all proposed debts are realised by the next fiscal year, the public debt will climb above 52 percent of GDP.
Under such resource constraints, limited economic activities from the funds transferred by the federal government to the provincial and local levels might marginally contribute to growth and development. However, capital expenditure to implement the large and transformative projects of the federal government looks bleak. This essentially means that the country’s economic growth will remain constricted for a few more years.

‘Transformative’ priorities
The new budget has chosen five sectors as transformative: Agriculture, energy, information technology, tourism promotion, and entrepreneurship and industrial development. There is hardly any debate or novelty in these priorities and objectives. Some initiatives like added focus, at least in theory, on information technology are certainly timely and appropriate. But even in these chosen areas, the fiscal bill has remained short of removing key policy or structural bottlenecks that are proving daunting in realising the true potentials of these sectors. These missed opportunities could have been tapped mostly without draining the exchequer.
Agricultural transformation without first arranging enough land for commercial agriculture is only a pipedream. Haphazard urbanisation has taken place on the most fertile land. The arable land is fragmented into generally tiny 30 million plots under the title of 13.5 million landowners. The average plot size is 0.3 hectares. The fault lies in the ad hoc and largely failed land use planning, which the government has failed to give due attention to.
On energy, Nepal first needs to develop a comprehensive blueprint for the energy economy. On the one hand, the thrill of exporting electricity has swayed national emotion; on the other, industries are demanding to meet their demand for power before exporting it at much cheaper rates than they are charged. It is appropriate to develop an automatic system of providing tariff concessions to manufacturing industries proportionate to the value addition of their products. Lack of coordination among the government agencies overseeing land, forest, environment and infrastructure development remains the main impediment in the construction of both power projects and transmission lines.
Despite bullish ambitions, the government has not been designating an appropriate location for an IT park and developing it with appropriate power, communication, and transport connectivity. Nepal also needs to think beyond adventure and backpacking tourism by developing unique-value products, destinations, and infrastructure to cater to high-value tourists.
The most challenging of all has been to increase productivity and create employment opportunities. The contribution of manufacturing to GDP has fallen below the 4 percent mark. Chronic underinvestment has paralysed the industrial sector. Missing both backward and forward linkages has made the ‘herding’ model of industries unsustainable. In all these sectors, the budget has taken only a cosmetic approach rather than putting genuine efforts into transforming them. Some key sectors under pressure due to an economic downward spiral, like real estate and housing, cooperatives, microfinance and construction, are highly disappointed with the utter neglect of the budget to address their problems.
Most importantly, the government has failed to realise that without a substantive stimulus package through bold fiscal and monetary policies, the economy has reached a stage of self-recovery on its own. Nepal is destined to reel under recession for some time to come. Growth is a further distant expectation.

In a recent article in Himal Press, Katak Malla wrote that Nepal should have the courage to recognise Palestine. His suggestion comes in the context of the recent announcements by Ireland, Norway and Spain to recognise and establish diplomatic relations with the State of Palestine based on the pre-1967 border. Israel protested the announcements by recalling its ambassadors from Dublin, Oslo and Madrid and summoning the envoys of these countries.
The underlying assumption in Malla’s article seems to be that Nepal had not previously recognised the State of Palestine and thus should undertake it now. However, Nepal had already recognised the State of Palestine as early as December 1988. With due deference to Malla, I proceed here with a series of factual enquiries, limiting the discussion to Nepal’s
recognition of the State of Palestine without delving into the history of the Israel-Palestine issue or the intricacies of the current crisis. The article also refrains from discussing the theoretical controversy between the declaratory and constitutive nature of recognition.

Does Nepal recognise Palestine?
On November 15, 1988, in Algiers, the Palestine National Council proclaimed the State of Palestine at its 19th session by adopting the Palestinian Declaration of Independence. This declaration and the existence of Palestine as a sovereign state were at the front and centre of the 81st meeting of the 43rd session of the UN General Assembly held in Geneva a month later. Interestingly, the General Assembly met in Geneva and not at its usual site in New York, mainly due to the US denying a visa to Palestine Liberation Organisation’s leader, Yasser Arafat. The UNGA meeting adopted a series of resolutions on the question of Palestine on December 15, 1988, with recorded votes. Of those resolutions, 43/176 and 43/177, along with Nepal’s recorded vote, are relevant for this enquiry.
Resolution 43/176 welcomed the outcome of the Palestine National Council meeting as a “positive contribution towards possible peaceful settlement of the conflict in the region.” It also called for convening the International Peace Conference on the Middle East under the aegis of the UN. However, it refrained from using the term State of Palestine per se. In contrast, resolution 43/177 decided that the designation “Palestine” should be used instead of “Palestine Liberation Organisation” in the UN system. This resolution also acknowledged the proclamation of the State of Palestine by the Palestine National Council and affirmed the need to enable the Palestinian people to exercise their sovereignty over their territory occupied since 1967. Regarding recognition, 43/176 was hesitant compared to 43/177.
It would suffice this enquiry if we could establish that Nepal voted in favour of both resolutions. However, Nepal voted affirmatively only for the first resolution. In the case of 43/177, which is unequivocal about the recognition of Palestine, Nepal abstained. Although the abstention doesn’t mean voting against the motion, Nepal did not express its support for resolution 43/177.
If we use a rather restrictive threshold of interpretation, we cannot conclusively say that Nepal’s voting records confirm its recognition of the State of Palestine. Therefore, the evidence for recognition must be sought elsewhere.
Nepal’s statement at the General Assembly meeting is of particular relevance. In his statement to the Assembly, Nepal’s Permanent Representative Ambassador Jai Pratap Rana said, “... declaration of the Palestine National Council in Algiers raised hopes for a just and lasting peace in the region. His Majesty’s Government of Nepal has welcomed this historic declaration ...”. Moreover, he emphasised Nepal’s firm position that the long-lasting and comprehensive peace in the Middle East should rest on three fundamental elements. First, the withdrawal of Israel from territories occupied since 1967. Second, an unconditional respect for the rights of the Palestinian people, including the right to an independent State. And third, recognition of the rights of Israel and every other State in the region to live in peace within secure and recognised boundaries free from threats and acts of force. Till today, these three pillars of Nepal’s position on the Israel-Palestine issue still hold water.
This 1988 statement from Nepal conclusively affirms that Nepal recognised Palestine in its pre-1967 borders as a sovereign state. Nepal also articulated that the Palestinians in occupied territory were denied their right to exercise sovereignty. Moreover, Nepal’s support for a two-state solution on pre-1967 borders has long stood.

Express or tacit?
The Montevideo Convention on the Rights and Duties of States 1933, parts of which constitute customary international law, states in Article 7 that state recognition may be “express or tacit.” While identifying an express recognition, it is sufficient to look at any formal declarations or statements; in the case of tacit recognition, one needs to look at the acts that imply the intention of recognising the new state.
Had we established Nepal’s recognition of Palestine based on the voting records alone, the case would have arguably been that of a tacit recognition. However, in our earlier enquiry, we ruled out that case. Ambassador Rana’s statement showed that recognition of Palestine was “express” and not tacit. Nepal’s act of recognition was formal and given after due thought.

Has Nepal revoked the recognition?
Article 6 of the Montevideo Convention said that the recognition is unconditional and irrevocable. However, state practices show that there have been revocation cases in rare scenarios. Many examples include the withdrawal of recognition in the case of Taiwan. Therefore, to appreciate Prof Malla’s assertion in a well-rounded manner, it would also be pertinent to enquire if Nepal has ever revoked its recognition.
As recognition is ultimately a “matter of political discretion”, as Hersch Lauterpacht wrote in 1947, despite its legal consequences, a state may withdraw recognition with certain justifications, often based on political interests. However, no evidentiary material suggests that Nepal had ever revoked its recognition of Palestine. On the contrary, Nepal supported Palestine’s elevation as an observer state of the UN General Assembly in 2012. On May 10, 2024, when the UNGA adopted the resolution urging the Security Council to favourably consider the full membership of Palestine, Nepal was among the 143 countries that voted in favour.
Based on the above inquiries, it conclusively appears that Malla’s suggestion to the Nepali state to recognise Palestine doesn’t hold up when tested against the facts. It may, however, would have been a different argument altogether had he suggested full-fledged “diplomatic relations” rather than recognition.

KATHMANDU,

The Central Dairy Cooperatives Association has issued an ultimatum to the government, stating that it would launch a protest if dairy farmers are not paid their outstanding dues by dairy companies within the next two weeks.

Amar Bahadur Kunwar, president of the association, said that despite an agreement signed between the government and dairy cooperatives to settle the farmers’ dues, the cooperatives, especially those associated with private dairy companies, have breached
the agreement, causing the problem. Private and state-owned dairies owe around Rs5 billion to farmers, said Kunwar.

On March 4, three private dairy associations—Central Dairy Cooperatives Association, Nepal Dairy Association, and Dairy Industry Association—the state-owned airy Development Corporation, and the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development, had signed a trilateral agreement to pay farmers their dues.

There, however, were no single representatives of the farmers during the signing of the agreement.

Under the agreement, farmers who have not received payments since August last year were to receive a payment for six months or until mid-January by April 3.

“The agreement was a lie,” said Kunwar.

“We have on Monday, notified in advance to the Dairy Development Board, Dairy Development Corporation, Nepal Dairy Association, Nepal Dairy Industry Association, Agriculture Ministry, Prime Minister’s Office and Finance Ministry about our protest plan and its consequences,” said Kunwar.

“We have given a 15-day ultimatum to clear the payment, or else we will launch a stern protest.” Surya Prasad Paudel, general manager of the Dairy Development Corporation, said, “We borrowed Rs300 million in credit from the government and cleared the farmers due till December last year. We still owe more than Rs1 billion to dairy farmers since January.”

In February, the corporation sought a bailout fund amounting to Rs300 million from the Finance Ministry. Subsequently, in March, the government decided to provide the credit.

The corporation said the stock of butter and powdered milk has piled up due to low demand in the market, and as a result, the cash flow has stopped. Despite the summer heat, the demand for dairy products has not improved.

The corporation has also issued a tender for the sale of butter and powdered milk. “Let’s see how much we can sell,” Paudel said. Despite the summer season, the demand for dairy products has not fully picked up. “The low demand will not help us generate the income needed to pay the farmers,” Paudel said.

Market insiders say that the Dahalled government, without conducting proper studies, hiked the price of milk for two consecutive years to encourage farmers to produce milk.

They said the consumer price of dairy products has become too high, as people’s incomes have not improved, resulting in a slowdown in sales.

On March 3 last year, the government hiked the minimum purchase price of raw milk paid to farmers by Rs9.1 per litre to Rs65.5. Later in the same month, the DDC increased the price of half-litre of standard milk that comes in a blue packet by Rs5.50 to Rs48.50.

Demand for dairy products started falling as soon as the prices were hiked.

“People’s incomes have dropped. They cannot afford to buy a litre of milk that costs over Rs100. The curd price has jumped to Rs200 per litre, and the prices of other dairy products have also increased,” said Madhav Timalsina, president of the Consumer
Investigation Forum. “An unfair price on dairy products benefits neither consumers nor farmers.”

Both state-owned and private dairies have been saying that the ongoing economic slowdown has dampened dairy demand, resulting in stopped cash flow and rising liabilities to farmers as products remained unsold for months.

The corporation is yet to finalise the strategies regarding clearing the remaining dues, Paudel said. Kunwar of the Central Dairy Cooperative Association said that the association does not make the payment, but it facilitates settling the payment from the dairy industry and other problems. The association does not know why the dairy industry is not able to settle the payment as per the agreement.

According to Peasants’ Coalition Nepal, the association of dairy farmers, farmers in eastern Tarai are facing even greater hardships as it has been nearly a year since they received any payments. The farmers of Jhapa and Biratnagar [Morang] have not received their payments for months. The farmers of Chitwan are also struggling.

DUSHANBE (Tajikistan ),
On posters across Tajikistan, President Emomali Rakhmon is shown surrounded by an abundance of fruit and vegetables under the slogan: “Let’s ensure food security!”

That goal is a distant prospect in the impoverished Central Asian country as it faces the twin challenges of low agricultural output and climate change.

A third of the Tajik population of 10 million people is malnourished.

And half of all available food is imported, according to the UN World Food Programme (WFP), meaning that the country’s food security “is at the mercy of brutal fluctuations in price”.

The government has declared food security a “national strategic objective” and Rakhmon, who has been in power since 1992, has urged every family to maintain food reserves that would last for up to two years, just in case.

It is a tall order for Tajiks like Zarif Gaforov, a 60-year-old plumber.

“I cannot make reserves for two years,” he told AFP in the capital Dushanbe. “There is nothing to stock up on—everything would go bad.”

Gaforov said he kept stocks of flour, potatoes, onions and butter, “enough for the winter”.

At a local supermarket, Mavchuda Obedova said she was stocking up on water, flour and grains “as the president advised”.

But stocking up large amounts of food is impossible for most people in Tajikistan, where the average monthly income is less than 200 euros ($217), the lowest of any former Soviet republic. “We buy food from day to day,” said 30-year-old nurse Mavzuna Chakalova.
“If we earned more money, we would build reserves.” Around 60 percent of her household budget goes toward food, several times more than in many Western countries.

Climate change is aggravating the problem: Frequent landslides destroying arable land while melting glaciers are producing less runoff each summer, which can lead to water shortages and droughts that contribute to soil erosion. “The president’s calls to build up reserves of food... are important against the backdrop of climate change,” said Bakhodur Rakhmonalizoda, an official from the Tajik food security committee.

“In Tajikistan, around 70 percent of the population live in rural areas where access to food could be complicated in the case of natural disasters,” he said. For this reason, he said, the state stockpiles emergency food supplies in secret quantities and locations around the mountainous country.

Complicating the problem is an inefficient agriculture sector, which accounts for around 23 percent of the economy and employs 60 percent of the population, according to international organisations.

“We have to work harder, to use the land and the water in an effective way, and produce as many products as possible,” Rakhmon urged farmers last month. He has also banned food waste as part of his efforts, calling it “an obstacle to the increase in the quality of life of the population”.

ISTANBUL,
Turkish inflation jumped above 75 percent in May, official data showed Monday, but officials expect consumer prices to have finally peaked in a cost-of-living crisis that has dogged President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Turkey has been battling soaring consumer prices that prompted Erdogan to drop his opposition to interest-rate hikes to combat inflation.

The central bank began to raise its key rate in June 2023, gradually taking it from 8.5 percent to 50 percent. Last month, central bank governor Fatih Karahan raised the year-end inflation forecast to 38 percent, up from a previous estimate of 36 percent.

But Karahan also said inflation would begin to slow in June after reaching a peak in May.

“The hardest part is over,” Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek wrote Monday on X.

“The permanent drop in inflation will begin in June,” he added. “The transition period in the fight against inflation has been completed and we are entering the process of disinflation.”

Inflation will “very likely” fall under 50 percent by the end of the third quarter, Simsek predicted. The staggering rise of consumer prices and the collapse of the Turkish lira are deemed responsible for the severe electoral setback inflicted on Erdogan’s AKP party in March municipal elections.

Turkey’s national statistics office said Monday that annual inflation reached 75.45 percent in May after accelerating to 69.8 percent in April.

It added that consumer prices had risen by 3.7 percent on a monthly basis between April and May, in line with central bank forecasts. A group of independent economists, ENAG, said consumer prices actually increased by 120.7 percent in May year-onyear and by 5.7 percent on a monthly basis. Liam Peach, senior emerging markets economist at London-based research group Capital Economics, said the May rise was stronger than expected and “slightly disappointing”. “It had looked like price pressures were easing in recent months, but the 3.4 percent month-on-month increase in May was higher than in both March and April,” Peach said in a note, predicting that “bumpy disinflation lies ahead”.

“We’re confident that inflation has now reached a peak but, with today’s release containing a few unpleasant surprises, the pace of disinflation in the second half of the year is looking a bit more uncertain,” Peach said. Erdogan long blamed inflation on high interest rates, even though it is the conventional policy at central banks worldwide to raise borrowing costs in order to lower inflation.

But after winning re-election last year, he returned to economic orthodoxy and expressed full confidence in the economic team led by Simsek. Last month, Simsek announced a three-year austerity plan aimed at reducing public spending to calm inflation.

One economist, Iris Cibre, said consumer prices would have to rise by 1.17 percent per month until the end of the year for inflation to reach the central bank’s 38 percent target. “Meanwhile, salaries will fall by 26 percent,” she said.

DUBAI,

With major new airports emerging from the desert and aircraft orders rolling in, the resource-rich Gulf is raising its stake in an industry forecast to boom in the decades ahead.

As the International Air Transport Association’s AGM takes place this week in Dubai—two years after it was held in Qatar—billions of dollars are being poured into aviation around the wealthy region.

And with good reason: according to the global industry body, Middle East passenger traffic will double in the next 20 years, climbing to 530 million passengers by 2043. Global figures will see a similar rise.

Dubai, which is already home to the world’s busiest airport by international traffic, has started work on an even larger airport which authorities say will handle up to 260 million passengers annually, which would be the biggest in the world.

A short drive away, the United Arab Emirates’ capital Abu Dhabi opened a new terminal in November, while gasrich Qatar has also been expanding Doha’s Hamad International Airport.

Neighbouring Saudi Arabia, which is pouring its oil wealth into projects that will help it weather the clean energy transition, is also making a major play.

Along with announcing a new air hub in Riyadh with capacity for 120 million passengers a year, Saudi Arabia has also unveiled Riyadh Air, a new airline with 39 Boeing jets on order.

Meanwhile, Jeddah-based Saudia Group, which runs the Saudia and flyadeal carriers, announced a bumper deal for 105 Airbus aircraft last month.

Emirates, Dubai’s state-owned carrier, with its large fleet of long-range, wide-body aircraft, epitomises the Gulf ’s “hub and spoke” model in which a globe-spanning range of longhaul destinations are linked by connecting flights through Dubai.

The Gulf “is a unique region due to its geography. In an eight-hour flight, we can reach 80 percent of the world’s population”, explained Stan Deal, then head of Boeing’s commercial aircraft division, late last year.

While Asia is expected to drive the rise in global passenger traffic, the Gulf expects to benefit, lying just a short hop from the growing markets of South Asia.

“They’re very well positioned to capture the Indian traffic and connect the subcontinent,” said Nina Lind, an aviation specialist at management consultancy McKinsey.

“There’s also a lot of incoming travel growth from Indonesia,” she said, referring to pilgrims heading to Saudi Arabia’s holy sites from the world’s biggest majority-Muslim country.

“There’s a ton of growth.” According to Airbus, traffic between the Middle East and Asia is expected to increase three-fold by 2042, and more than double between the Middle East and Europe.

IATA vice-president Kamil Alawadhi said Middle East airports are currently on “par with the demand, maybe lagging a bit... So you’ll see a very calculated business plan for either the expansion or building of new airports”.

“I don’t think we’re going to ever have an overcapacity for the next, I don’t know, 40 years or so in this particular region,” he added.

Geoffrey Weston, head of consultancy Bain and Company’s airlines, logistics and transportation sector, said the Gulf airlines, which also include Qatar Airways and Etihad, had the advantage of strong brands and close links to Asia.

“They do have the hedge of having spent, now, two decades building their brands and getting closer to their Asian and Indian subcontinent clients,” he said.

The airlines have “also been dipping into” markets in East Africa, West Africa and Southern Africa, he said.

BRIDGETOWN,
Namibia scored a nerve-shredding victory over Oman in their T20 World Cup Group B clash in Barbados on Monday after a low-scoring thriller was decided by a super over.
David Wiese was the hero for Namibia, contributing 13 runs in the Africans’ super over total of 21 before restricting Oman to 10 runs with the ball in hand to seal a crucial win at Kensington Oval.
The match had gone to a decisive extra over after a tense duel saw both teams finish with 109 runs from their allotted 20 overs.
Oman had looked to be heading for defeat after a superb four-wicket bowling display from Ruben Trumpelmann saw them all out for 109 off 19.4 overs.
But Oman’s bowlers responded with a disciplined performance to contain Namibia’s bats, with Mehran Khan conjuring a superb spell to leave the match on a knife edge.
Khan finished with figures of three wickets for seven runs off three overs.
The veteran Oman bowler took two wickets in the final over to frustrate Namibia, who had needed just five runs from the over to clinch victory.
But Khan was bizarrely overlooked for the super over bowling duties by Oman, with Bilal Khan handed the ball instead.
That move backfired spectacularly, though, with Wiese blasting a four off the first ball and then crushing a full toss for six off Khan’s second delivery.
Wiese took three more runs off the next two balls before Namibia skipper Gerhard Erasmus hit back-to-back fours to set Oman a daunting victory target of 22 off their super over.
Wiese took over the bowling duties for Namibia and after conceding just two runs from his first two deliveries, took the wicket of Naseem Khushi.
Two more singles left Oman needing 18 from the last delivery to win, meaning Wiese could allow Zeeshan Maqsood to blast a six knowing victory was assured.
Wiese said he had been confident of steering Namibia to victory with bat and ball in the super over.
“It helped that I had a feel of the game and knew if I get a few hits out in the Super Over—then with the ball, felt like taking the ball and executing. The pitch was difficult and didn’t play the way we thought. But we adapted well.”
Oman captain Aqib Ilyas was left lamenting an agonising near-miss—but defended the decision to opt for Bilal as the super over bowler over the in-form Khan.
“I think Bilal is one of the best bowlers you can have at this level,” Aqib said. “But there are days where you plan and it doesn’t execute.
Earlier, Trumpelmann had given Namibia a dream start with two wickets from the first two deliveries of the match, part of a four-wicket performance. Wiese also impressed in the regulation 20 overs with 3-28 off 3.4 overs.
Namibia made hard work of the run chase, however, with Jan Frylinck (45) and Niko Davin (24) top scoring as the southern Africans came up just short of their victory target.

Windies restrict PNG
West Indies’ bowlers proved too much for the comparative novices of Papua New Guinea as the two-time former champions restricted them to 136 for eight in their T20 World Cup clash on Sunday.
Sese Bau’s belligerent 50 off 43 balls, with six fours and one six, represented the only meaningful contribution from PNG after they were put in to bat on a bright, humid morning.
Wicketkeeper Kiplin Doriga (27 not out) and captain Assad Vala (21) were the only other players to get past 20 with fast bowlers Alzarri Joseph and Andre Russell spearheading a disciplined West Indies effort with two wickets each.
West Indies captain Rovman Powell opted with a spin-pace combination throughout the innings to good effect.
The slow bowling trio of Akeal Hosein, Gudakesh Motie and Roston Chase contributed with wickets and economy to limit a struggling Papua batting line-up.
Chastened by desperately poor showings at the last two T20 World Cups, the champions from 2012 and 2016 are keen to pick up early points against PNG and Uganda before the tougher Group C challenges in the shape of New Zealand and Afghanistan.
West Indies’ only previous meeting in an official international fixture against Papua New Guinea was at the 2018 qualifying tournament in Zimbabwe for the 2019 50-over-side World Cup.
Jason Holder’s unbeaten 99 guided the Caribbean team to a six-wicket win in Harare.

T20 WORLD CUP
GROUP B, BRIDGETOWN
Namibia vs Oman
TOSS: Namibia, field first.
Oman 109-10 (19.4/20 overs)
Khalid Kail 34 (39), Zeeshan Maqsood 22 (20); Ruben Trumpelmann 4-0-21-4,
David Wiese 3.4-0-28-3
Namibia 109-6 (20/20 overs)
Jan Frylink 45 (48), Nikolaas Davin 24 (31), Mehran Khan 3-1-7-3, Aqib Ilyas 4-1-17-1
Match tied. Namibia win in the Super Over.
Player of the match: David Wiese

GROUP C, PROVIDENCE
Papua New Guinea vs West Indies
TOSS: West Indies, field first.
Papua New Guinea 136-8 (20/20 overs)
SeseBau 50 (43), Kiplin Doriga 27* (18), Assad Vala 21 (22); Akeal Hosein 3-0-9-1, Andre Russell 3-0-19-2, Alzarri Joseph 4-0-34-2
West Indies 137-5 (19/20 overs)
Roston Chase 42* (27), Brandon King 34 (29); Assad Vala 4-1-28-2, John Kariko 4-0-17-1
West Indies win by 5 wickets.
Player of the match: Roston Chase

ARIES (March 21-April 19)
Set new structures internally so that you may thrive materially. Luck could manifest in mysterious ways, amplifying your ability to speak ideas or hopes into existence. Use your voice, especially when it comes to calling in more.

TAURUS (April 20-May 20)
This day elevates your popularity. Invest in professional alliances, expanding your network as you make a name for yourself. Your manifestation skills sharpen bringing you closer to prosperity. You’ll have much luck when using your voice.

GEMINI (May 21-June 21)
Allow your efforts to speak for themselves this morning, producing quality work without asking for praise. You’ll find it easy to gain attention, this day brings an effortless and charismatic energy to your aura. Stay focused.

CANCER (June 22-July 22)
Your wisdom will be in high demand this morning, reinvigorating your role as a pillar of the community. However, it’ll be important that you spend some time flying under the radar. Break free from unhealthy patterns.

LEO (July 23-August 22)
This day puts you in a career-oriented and empowered headspace. Push for your dreams, making sacrifices as needed. Your popularity increases marking the ideal time to release new work or speak on topics you feel passionate about.

VIRGO (August 23-September 22)
Have faith in yourself while finding the courage to lean into love. This day lends aid to your relationships, helping you establish healthy connections with people and the divine. Blessings will find you in unexpected ways today.

LIBRA (September 23-October 22)
You’ll be called to work diligently toward change this morning. Lean into these vibes by reconnecting with your professional and personal goals, tackling tasks both small and large to bring you closer to these ambitions. Shake off stress.

SCORPIO (October 23-November 21)
You should feel confident, refined, and full of love this morning. Set long-term goals for yourself, establishing structures accordingly. You’ll find that it’s easy to pull at the threads of transformation. Go further with those you love.

SAGITTARIUS (November 22-December 21)
You’ll have a chance to sort through your emotions and to-do lists without feeling overwhelmed. Chase what your heart desires, reaching for success within love and business by using your voice, and exuding confidence.

CAPRICORN (December 22-January 19)
Your ability to correct mistakes or issues sharpens this morning, maximizing efficiency. An element of luck also comes into play, allowing you to yield major rewards. Just remember to stay organized as you chase success.

AQUARIUS (January 20-February 18)
You won’t be in the mood to bother with anyone or anything that doesn’t contribute to your sense of security. Set boundaries to protect your heart, cultivating a happy bubble from which you can operate. Push forward creative or social agendas.

PISCES (February 19-March 20)
Speak clearly. This day is perfect for commanding respect, especially when it comes to your own expertise and ideas. You may also experience lucky breakthroughs within your private affairs or home life. Creative ideas strike like lightning. astrology.com